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Day: August 25, 2026

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Shay Boloor

@StockSavvyShay ·
3h 2092435138961605050

The cleanest test of the AI cycle is what $NVDA is actually shipping, and current expectations still point to revenue climbing from ~$95B this quarter toward ~$110B next quarter.

If revenue keeps rising while gross margins hold around 75% then it becomes much harder to argue the

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Futurum Equities

@FuturumEquities ·
11h 2092316152726683926

Perplexity's Portable Computer runs local models on a single NVIDIA DGX Spark, and pairing two or four scales up to frontier-class open models like Nemotron Ultra.

We've said every agent needs its own computer, and this is that thesis shipping as product. $NVDA

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Futurum Equities

@FuturumEquities ·
14h 2092280920174682207

OpenAI's Jalapeño inference ASIC, fabbed on TSMC N3P, beat Nvidia and AMD accelerators on several efficiency metrics in SemiAnalysis testing.

Every custom-silicon program still routes through one foundry, so more inference ASICs means more leading-edge demand for TSMC. $TSM

Image for the Tweet beginning: OpenAI's Jalapeño inference ASIC, fabbed Twitter feed image.
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Futurum Equities

@FuturumEquities ·
14h 2092275971806109764

Paid token demand is up 7x this year, and token margins climb with every architecture: roughly 58% on Blackwell, mid 70s on Rubin, an expected 90% on Feynman.

@danielnewmanUV on episode 53, correcting the token price chart making the rounds.

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Futurum Equities

@FuturumEquities ·
16h 2092247436815188450

"I put 80% of his brokerage into $NVDA as like a T bill at that moment. I truly view it as a T bill." -@StockSavvyShay

His son's brokerage, for the record. @StockMarketNerd takes the ETF route instead and gives up the upside. The verdicts from the NVIDIA deep dive.

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Shay Boloor

@StockSavvyShay ·
16h 2092247190509154326

$NVDA may have built one of the most powerful financing flywheels in AI with more than $500B of outside infrastructure capital helping customers fund the buildout of the new economy.

That can extend the AI buildout while Nvidia’s own earnings curve keeps doing the heavy lifting

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Futurum Equities

@FuturumEquities ·
24 Aug 2092016678607438287

$NBIS closed a private offering of convertible senior notes sold to qualified institutional buyers.

Nebius Group reported aggregate gross proceeds of about $5.75 billion from the deal.

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$CRM IS THE TEST OF WHETHER AGENTIC AI CAN ACTUALLY REACCELERATE MATURE SOFTWARE

  • Salesforce
  • Daily Shay

Podcast

Anthropic put an October IPO on the table, and the neo clouds sold off hard into the news. Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor spend episode 53 on the narrow window where Anthropic can be the only public frontier AI stock, the margin test NVIDIA faces next Wednesday, and the Marvell warrant deal the market read backwards. The guys open on the data center politics souring the AI narrative into the midterms, then get into the week's headline: Anthropic closed a 39 point pervasion gap on OpenAI in 12 months per the ETR data and crossed over, while the early Q3 read shows OpenAI re-accelerating and Codex pervasion doubling in a quarter. Shay's read is a scarcity window: OpenAI can't list until 2027, so Anthropic gets nearly a year as the only direct public market expression of frontier AI. The catch is capital absorption. A raise that could approach $100 billion has to be funded from somewhere, and the obvious source is the AI proxies. That feeds the neo cloud conversation: Ken Griffin dumped most of the Situational Awareness book, CoreWeave borrows near 10% against a 15% return hurdle, and higher for longer rates squeeze every levered builder. On NVIDIA, the market is pricing the stock under a market multiple into Wednesday's report, and the counter is Vera Rubin holding 75% gross margins after Blackwell, SpaceX growing from roughly 4% of revenue toward 10% by the end of next year, and token margins climbing from 58% on Blackwell to an expected 90% on Feynman while paid token demand runs up 7x this year. Marvell gets the correction segment: the Google deal is about 7% dilution over 6.5 years against $120 billion of spend, TPU ecosystem attach rather than the socket, and roughly ten years of MRVL's entire run rate from one customer. The Q&A block covers OpenAI's consumer monetization problem, Coherent and the CPO revenue that only starts in the December quarter, Cipher at $15 after three round trips to $30, the poll showing 70% of Americans against data centers, and what Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole means two weeks before the September FOMC. The show is live every Friday. If you're tracking AI infrastructure, frontier AI, or the NVIDIA print, bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air. If this one sharpened your read on the Anthropic IPO, a like genuinely helps the show reach more investors. Subscribe and hit the bell so you catch the next live, and tell us in the comments whether you're buying the IPO on day one. Chapters: 00:00 Episode 53: the eye of the storm week 02:21 Data center politics hit the AI narrative 04:08 Golf courses use 3x the water of data centers 04:47 The spokesperson problem: Dario and Sam 06:59 Anthropic's October IPO: the scarcity window 10:10 The ETR data: Anthropic crossed OpenAI 11:35 Compute is the moat and Codex re-accelerates 13:20 Everybody buys the IPO anyway 14:17 A $100B raise has to come from somewhere 16:20 Why the neo clouds sold off 17:42 The cost of capital math on CoreWeave 20:20 Crypto rips 20% and the rotation trade 24:31 NVIDIA preview: the Super Bowl print 26:40 NVIDIA's earnings aren't for NVIDIA anymore 28:39 Daniel's checklist: margins, Rubin, customers 31:25 Jensen's answer to circular financing 34:59 The misleading token chart, corrected 37:36 Marvell and Google: the real warrant math 40:44 Q&A: OpenAI and consumer monetization 43:35 Q&A: Coherent and the CPO ramp 47:55 Q&A: Cipher and the neo cloud ladder 49:25 Q&A: the 70% anti data center poll 53:23 Jackson Hole: Warsh's debut 55:52 Cancer vaccines and AI's public case 59:31 Wrap: next week is a doozy #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #Nvidia #Stocks 1:0:12 Anthropic IPOs in October. The only frontier AI stock for a year. | Ep. 53

Anthropic IPOs in October. The only frontier AI stock for a year. | Ep. 53

Futurum Equities August 21, 2026 11:07 pm

A prominent memory bull flipped short term bearish over the weekend, and Sandisk answered with an investor day that guides to 80% gross margins out to 2030. Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor spend episode 52 on the memory wall, the week the GPU depreciation bear case broke, and Futurum's new $12.7 trillion AI capex number. The guys open on the memory debate: why every semiconductor and systems company is trying to engineer around the memory wall with stacking, optics, and software, and why Daniel still calls memory a 5 to 10 year constraint. Sandisk's investor day gets the full treatment: mid to high teens growth guided through fiscal 2030, 80% non GAAP gross margins, free cash flow at 50% of revenue, KV cache reaching 35% of AI data center NAND workloads by 2030, and the first HBF die coming in 2027. Shay explains his Micron 2027 call position and why memory stays rationed while GPU capacity commands premiums. Then the neo clouds: CoreWeave signed five year A100 contracts on silicon that is already six years old, grew its order book twice as fast as revenue, and passed $400 million in annualized non GPU business. Nebius ran the first Blackwell capacity auction and cleared 15% above its own best pricing, with management saying all of 2027 could book at those levels. Plus Applied Materials' largest sequential growth quarter in its 59 year history, Lenovo's 98% infrastructure growth, Shay's new Vertiv and ON Semiconductor positions for AI power, and the note that chips alone reach roughly $5 trillion of spend by the end of the decade. The Q&A block keeps growing and this week it earned the time: the humanoid robotics SPAC that fails the sniff test, the best AI energy stock between GE Vernova, Vertiv, and Bloom, Aehr Test Systems after a 15x run, AppLovin's make or break Q3, Cipher's messy quarter and the CEO stock sale, Credo against Astera Labs, and how Michael Burry and Jim Cramer keep getting the AI trade wrong. The show is live every Friday. If you're tracking AI infrastructure, memory, or the neo clouds, bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air. If this one sharpened your read on the memory trade, a like genuinely helps the show reach more investors. Subscribe and hit the bell so you catch the next live, and tell us in the comments which constraint you think the dollars rotate to next. Chapters: 00:00 Episode 52 and the Six Five Summit slate 02:38 A memory bull flips bearish 04:05 The memory wall: a 5 to 10 year constraint 07:15 KV cache and memory beyond HBM 09:23 Sandisk investor day: the 2030 targets 11:14 Redesigning the memory hierarchy for inference 13:45 A100s contracted through 2030 15:25 CoreWeave: layers of revenue, real risks 18:48 Power is the gate: Vertiv and ON adds 21:01 Futurum's $12.7 trillion capex number 22:27 Nebius and the Blackwell auction 25:46 Selling puts on space names 28:49 ASTS and Rocket Lab: the execution risk era 31:34 Applied Materials, Cisco, and Lenovo prints 33:56 Elevated expectations, tepid reactions 36:06 Q&A: the humanoid robotics SPAC 38:37 Best AI energy stock: GEV, Vertiv, Bloom 40:42 Aehr Test Systems after a 15x run 42:06 AppLovin's make or break Q3 45:39 Cipher's miss and the CEO sale 48:29 Credo vs Astera Labs 51:22 Burry, Cramer, and the 5% that is overbuilt 55:18 SaaSpocalypse winners 57:43 The eye of the storm before NVIDIA #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #Semis #Earnings 58:20 Memory is a 5 to 10 year constraint. The 2030 guides just proved it. | Ep. 52

Memory is a 5 to 10 year constraint. The 2030 guides just proved it. | Ep. 52

Futurum Equities August 14, 2026 11:09 pm

SpaceX just delivered its first earnings report as a public company, and the number nobody modeled stole the whole show. Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor spend episode 51 on the print, the lockup everyone was selling ahead of, and why a weak jobs report has the entire AI trade breathing again. The guys go deep on SpaceX: 92% growth in an AI cloud business that was never supposed to exist at this scale, a revenue path from $44 billion this year toward $260 billion by 2029, and the math behind Shay buying the lockup fear at $109 to $110 before the print. Elon's on-record line that SpaceX runs only on Nvidia gets its own moment. From there it's Palantir's rerating: 93% growth, commercial up 150%, net dollar retention at 157%, roughly $6 billion of US commercial contract value closed, and 73 deals worth over $10 million each. Daniel calls the end of the SaaS apocalypse and explains why compute is the moat while Anthropic's street ARR pushes $85 billion. AMD gets the honest treatment: the MI350 and EPYC beat, why Lisa Su's conservative guide is the long game, and the Helios rack scale platform with its claimed 30% more tokens per dollar. Plus the no rate hike case under Kevin Warsh after a weak jobs Friday, Shay's new Vertiv position at $220 for AI power exposure, Micron over SK Hynix on HBM rate of change, and the reveal that Shay sold every share of his Tesla on a SpaceX merger theory. The back half is all viewer Q&A: the Palantir and Mercury digital twin partnership, Daniel's put selling playbook that pays him 5 to 10% of his portfolio a year in cash flow, the Oscar Health case study, T1 Energy and EOS Energy as the speculative power trades, and who actually wins when models get cheap. The show is live every Friday. If you're tracking AI infrastructure or trading this earnings season, bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air. If this one helped you make sense of the tape, a like genuinely helps the show reach more investors. Subscribe and hit the bell so you catch the next live, and come tell Shay whether the Tesla exit was genius or tin hat in the comments. Chapters: 00:00 Episode 51: back from the Schwab event 04:19 Jobs Friday: the no rate hike case 09:40 Why weak data is bullish: the 10 year toward 4% 10:57 Buying the July panic and the gaslighting 15:02 Vertiv and the AI power gap 17:22 SpaceX's first earnings as a public company 20:04 The $44B to $260B ramp and the lockup buy 25:56 Sizing SpaceX and the space portfolio 28:12 AMD: Lisa Su's conservative guide and Helios 34:56 Palantir's rerating: 157% retention 38:48 The SaaSpocalypse is over 41:54 Models as commodities and the scarcity premium 44:26 Q&A: Palantir and Mercury's digital twins 46:28 Daniel's put selling playbook 51:37 T1 Energy, EOS, and Shay selling all his Tesla 54:19 Memory: Micron over SK Hynix 57:58 Who wins when models get cheap #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #SpaceX #Earnings 1:1:33 SpaceX guided to $260B by 2029. Shay bought the lockup fear. | Ep. 51

SpaceX guided to $260B by 2029. Shay bought the lockup fear. | Ep. 51

Futurum Equities August 7, 2026 11:26 am

Episode 50 lands in a strange tape. Google grew its cloud business 82% and the stock got sold anyway, and Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor spend the show on what that selling actually means for everyone holding the AI trade. The guys go deep on Alphabet's print: a $25 billion cloud quarter growing 82% with 36% operating margins, a $15 billion capex raise, and the earnings math behind Shay's call that Google is "a great business, bad investment" until EPS clears $20 again in 2029. Nvidia at 18x earnings gets the other side of that trade. From there it's the $11.7 trillion cumulative AI capex bull case through 2030, TSMC raising capex $8 billion in a quarter while flagging a bigger 2027, Intel's blowout on server CPU pricing and Shay's rule that INTC has to prove an external foundry customer to earn its price above $100, Tesla converting record deliveries into a 1% operating margin, Micron and the HBM demand curve the market keeps mispricing, and IREN's $2.8 billion AI cloud contract with roughly half the GPU capex prepaid by customers. Plus SpaceX lockup math and entry levels, Meta at 18x with Shay's $1,200 thesis, and Jensen Huang joining X mid show. The back half is all viewer Q&A: ServiceNow as the benchmark for AI software, Shay's tier one and tier two software framework, whether Meta is the best Mag 7 buy right now, IREN position sizing, and the drone bucket ahead of the Anduril IPO. The show is live every Friday. If you're tracking AI infrastructure or trading this earnings season, bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air. If this one helped you make sense of the tape, a like genuinely helps the show reach more investors. Subscribe and hit the bell so you catch the next live, and come argue with Shay about NVDA at $100 in the comments. Chapters: 00:00 Episode 50: Jensen joins X and the inverse Cramer tape 01:31 Strong prints keep getting sold 03:15 AI turns political and the Apple tell 07:47 The $11.7T capex bull case 09:42 Bottleneck bros and the rate of change problem 12:56 Semis supply constrained for 4 to 5 years 16:10 Google vs Nvidia: the two year problem 18:56 Daniel's defense: capex is existential 21:37 Memory: the market is pricing the peak wrong 23:20 TSMC raises capex, the grown up signal 26:50 Intel's $100 foundry gate 34:07 Tesla: record deliveries, 1% margin 37:47 SpaceX: merger math, lockups, entry levels 43:31 Q&A: ServiceNow and the software tiers 48:57 Meta at 18x and the $1,200 case 52:46 IREN's $2.8B contract 55:45 Drones, Anduril, ASTS 59:06 The put selling playbook and NVDA $100 on record #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #Semis #Earnings 1:2:40 Google grew cloud 82% and still got sold. Where the money went. | Ep 50

Google grew cloud 82% and still got sold. Where the money went. | Ep 50

Futurum Equities July 24, 2026 11:19 am

MU at 6x earnings, NVDA at 18x, and SK Hynix listing 3x oversubscribed on NASDAQ. The memory selloff heading into the listing looked like a fundamentals problem. It wasn't. Daniel Newman sat down with the SK Group chairman on listing day. Shay Boloor walked through exactly why Micron is his cleanest memory entry right now, why NVIDIA has become the capital-safety trade in a volatile market, and where the Mag 7 relative value actually sits heading into the second half. Tickers covered: MU, NVDA, SKHYF, META, MSFT, PLTR, SNOW, DDOG, NOW, CRWD, PANW, DELL, OKLO, BE, GEV, ASTS, RKLB, HIMS, OSCR, SHOP, ADBE, CRM, SAP, AMD. Key data points from this episode: Futurum Equities $155 price target on MU. Futurum 2027 AI-only CapEx forecast of $1.44T. BofA projecting NVIDIA at 65-70% share of AI CapEx. Software names up roughly 50% off April 2025 lows. SK Hynix IPO 3-4x oversubscribed with 30-50% listing-day run risk flagged. 00:00 Intro and SK Hynix US listing context 00:43 SK Hynix NASDAQ debut and Daniel's chairman sit-down 02:14 MU price target, memory rankings, and tariff advantage 07:48 Why geopolitics won't stop AI CapEx 08:14 NVDA as the return-to-safety trade at 18x earnings 10:06 BofA NVDA revenue projection and AMD's role 11:48 Futurum 2027 AI infrastructure CapEx forecast 12:33 NVDA CPU business and Jensen's neo-cloud strategy 14:35 Bottleneck bros valuation gap: NVDA at 18x, MU at 6-8x 15:50 NVIDIA as the T-bill 19:24 META as second-best Mag 7 opportunity 20:03 MSFT at roughly 20% undervalued with $100/share upside 30:08 RKLB, HIMS, and OSCR portfolio moves 32:52 Software up 50% from April lows, rotation dynamics 34:17 Top four AI software winners: PLTR, SNOW, DDOG, SHOP 35:24 ETR survey data flagging enterprise softness risk 37:38 CRWD and PANW both post best quarters in company history 38:07 Daniel on SaaSPocalypse and the era of abundance 39:35 ADBE, CRM as system-of-record value plays 41:00 DELL up 4x YTD but 17% gross margins limit the case 42:44 OKLO down from $200 to $46, Stage 4 breakdown flagged 44:00 BE and GEV as behind-the-meter power plays 46:47 SAP vs PLTR as business AI platforms 49:12 ASTS as the pure space connectivity play 54:20 Samsung profitability data point 54:55 SK Hynix listing bag-holder risk for chasers 56:11 MU near 50-day SMA as re-entry setup #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #Investing #Markets 58:09 SK Hynix listed 3x oversubscribed. Why Micron is the cleaner entry from here. | Ep. 49

SK Hynix listed 3x oversubscribed. Why Micron is the cleaner entry from here. | Ep. 49

Futurum Equities July 8, 2026 11:24 am

PLTR, MU, META compute leasing, and the software bounce: Shay added to Palantir in the $115 range as Alex Carp's CNBC interview reframed the proprietary data moat, and every Future 15 software pick turned green in the same week. This episode covers why the application and data layer sits above frontier model companies as the durable AI winner, what META leasing 500 megawatts of excess GPU capacity actually means for neo clouds like NBIS and CRWV, and why the hosts think that sell-off was overdone. Futurum's price target on MU sits at $155 with street highs above $200. MSFT announced a $2.5B forward-deployed AI joint venture. AWS raised GPU rental prices 20%. OpenAI giving 5% equity to the US government gets called out as pure IPO valuation mechanics, not patriotism. The memory trade, physical AI sensing plays, and the AI CapEx prisoner's dilemma all get full treatment in the back half. Tickers covered: PLTR, MU, META, MSFT, NVDA, SNOW, NOW, CRM, ADBE, ORCL, NBIS, CIFR, WULF, CRWV, ASTS, AXON, AMBA, AVAV, KTOS, ACHR, JOBY 00:00 Intro 01:14 MU breaks below $100 and the memory trade thesis 05:16 Alex Carp CNBC interview and the PLTR data layer argument 08:34 OpenAI and Anthropic ARR approaching $100B 13:46 NVDA as model and cloud company via capacity deals 18:29 SNOW post-earnings and Shay's re-entry plan 19:19 MSFT as best Mag 7 opportunity and the $2.5B AI JV 20:44 Every Future 15 software pick green 23:56 META compute leasing and the neo cloud reaction 29:12 Why the neo cloud sell-off is overdone 33:45 AWS GPU rental prices up 20% and multi-year capacity locks 35:35 META $145B CapEx and 500MW compute leasing EPS math 37:25 OpenAI giving 5% equity to the US government 41:47 Futurum $155 price target on MU and memory supply through the decade 44:32 Physical AI sensing layer: AMBA and drone plays 45:12 AVAV and KTOS as drone pure-play bottom-fish trades 46:03 ACHR and JOBY eVTOL skepticism through 2029 48:32 ASTS as the last pure satellite connectivity play 49:44 AXON catches a bid on recycled news 52:00 AI CapEx prisoner's dilemma 56:15 Apple, memory, and iPhone 18 bill of materials Disclaimer: This episode is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions. 57:14 META flipped $145B of CapEx into a new business overnight. | Ep 48

META flipped $145B of CapEx into a new business overnight. | Ep 48

Futurum Equities July 2, 2026 9:54 am

Micron just posted 85% gross margins and NVIDIA is trading at 18x forward earnings while Intel sits at 60x. We break down why that dislocation matters and what it means for the broader AI infrastructure trade. MU's blowout quarter is the headline, but the structural story is the strategic customer agreements covering roughly 20% of DRAM and 33% of HBM supply with 60% of those contracts carrying no price ceiling. Apple's 15% product price increases confirmed the memory cost pass-through is real, and new supply capacity does not arrive in any meaningful way before 2030. We also get into NVDA at $185 to $190, PLTR with a PEG near 1.0, ORCL's $640B backlog against low-teens infrastructure margins, Cerebras' IPO sequential revenue decline, QCOM's data center push, DOCN pulling from $185 to $140, and a rapid-fire Q&A on CRWV, NBTX, CIFR, WULF, AVGO, AMD, and IRON. Chapters: 00:00 Intro and Qualcomm Investor Day recap 01:05 Micron as the quarter's marquee event 05:40 Apple's 15% price increases and the consumer paying for AI 09:00 How Micron's beats compare to early NVIDIA quarters 11:40 Strategic customer agreements and the no-price-ceiling contracts 16:55 Futurum infrastructure price target and MU EPS path to 2028 18:00 Memory margins before and after AI 19:57 Cerebras IPO breakdown and sequential revenue decline 22:00 Core Weave as a levered NVIDIA-backed infrastructure play 28:50 NVDA vs. Cerebras multiple comparison 29:50 What NVDA's $190 price implies about peak earnings 31:58 How the hosts think about long-term portfolio conviction 33:24 SoFi update 34:42 Buying quality names at a discount 35:40 Viking Therapeutics covered call strategy 38:35 Palantir PEG of 1.0 and the add thesis 41:15 Burry shorts PLTR. The hosts disagree. 43:08 Oracle's $640B backlog and the free cash flow problem 49:13 Astara Labs and Credo as data movement plays 51:09 DigitalOcean from $185 to $140 53:06 Iron AI capital allocation concerns 56:43 Cipher Mining, TeraWolf, and Nebius compared 57:52 AMD at 40x vs. NVDA at 18x 01:00:09 Intel at 60x and the full valuation dislocation picture Nothing in this video is financial advice. All content is for informational and educational purposes only. Disclaimer: This episode is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions. 1:1:45 MU ripped 325% YTD and the multiple is still catching up. Here's why. | Ep 47

MU ripped 325% YTD and the multiple is still catching up. Here's why. | Ep 47

Futurum Equities June 26, 2026 11:18 am

Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor are live on The Futurum Equities Podcast, breaking down how and why the Fed just handed the market a regime change disguised as a hold. If you're running any AI or tech exposure right now you need to understand what actually happened. The Fed kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, but that's the least interesting part of the decision. The dot plot median shifted to 3.8% year-end, nine of eighteen officials are now projecting a 2026 hike, and the cutting-bias language got stripped from the statement entirely. The 2-year Treasury confirmed it immediately, jumping 14 basis points to 4.153%. That's the bond market telling you this is structural. For NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and PLTR, which are all priced on multi-year earnings streams, a higher discount rate compresses multiples even when the fundamentals don't change. Daniel and Shay will pressure-test each name against that reality. The hyperscaler capex commitments are also load-bearing: META guided $125 to $145 billion, MSFT is at $120 billion-plus, AMZN is at $200 billion, and GOOGL is at $175 to $185 billion. That contracted demand flows through to NVDA's data-center segment regardless of where the 2-year goes. 59:24 Fed broke the rate narrative. NVDA and AI capex face a new math | Ep 46

Fed broke the rate narrative. NVDA and AI capex face a new math | Ep 46

Futurum Equities June 18, 2026 11:12 pm

SpaceX debuted at a $2T valuation, 4x oversubscribed, and the largest IPO in history. While the market chased the narrative, NVDA fell 15% from its May highs and ARM ran. Shay closed the ARM position and rotated into NVDA at roughly $200, targeting $300 on a 24-25x earnings multiple. That's the trade the episode is really about. We break down the SpaceX IPO valuation case, why Shay sees the entry as questionable despite loving the business, and what the proxy-chasing dynamic says about where the real AI infrastructure opportunity sits right now. Oracle's OCI transition gets a full breakdown too: a $638B backlog that is larger than Amazon, Microsoft, and Google combined, but mid-teens margins against hyperscaler margins of 30-50% that explain exactly why the market is skeptical on conversion. We close with rapid-fire coverage across drone defense, AI networking names including AVGO, MRVL, ANET, COHR, and CREDO, and the power infrastructure trade with GEV, VRT, Bloom Energy, and Shay's new position in FGNT near $50. Tickers covered: NVDA, ARM, ORCL, RKLB, ASTS, PLTR, SNOW, MDB, GOOGL, AVGO, MRVL, ANET, COHR, LUMN, CREDO, CSCO, HPE, VRT, GEV, BE, FGNT, MRCY, AVAV, KTOS, TSLA 00:00 Intro 00:27 SpaceX IPO opens: $2T valuation, 4x oversubscribed 03:10 Tesla vs SpaceX: narrative structure and valuation parallels 06:52 Google's SpaceX stake and the $35B Anthropic TPU deal 09:11 Shay on the IPO entry point and proxy halo effect 09:51 RKLB and ASTS: owning the space proxies from $3 and $2 15:20 NVDA valuation disconnect: the category leader nobody is bidding 15:40 Why Shay closed ARM and bought NVDA at $200 19:58 Oracle OCI: $638B backlog, mid-teens margins, conversion skepticism 28:45 PLTR and SNOW: AI software names that are actually executing 36:09 Futurum bull case: $5.7T AI CapEx in 2035 alone 37:20 Jensen's numbers: $80-100B per gigawatt, $10-30B token revenue per gigawatt per year 40:44 Google's $35B TPU backstop for Anthropic pre-IPO 43:30 Compute as independence: why everyone is racing to be unconstrained 47:53 AVGO, MRVL, ANET, COHR, CREDO: the networking layer breakdown 51:30 HPE and CSCO hitting all-time highs on enterprise and sovereign AI demand 53:35 Drone defense: AVAV, KTOS, MRCY as the picks-and-shovels layer 54:45 Power trade: VRT, GEV, BE, and FGNT as Shay's new add near $50 59:00 Closing: power constrained for years, space is an add-on not a replacement Subscribe and follow Futurum Equities for live market analysis on the names and narratives moving capital. Disclaimer: This episode is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions. 1:0:15 Oracle's $638B backlog and SpaceX's index clock. What breaks next.

Oracle's $638B backlog and SpaceX's index clock. What breaks next.

Futurum Equities June 12, 2026 11:36 am

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Anthropic put an October IPO on the table, and the neo clouds sold off hard into the news. Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor spend episode 53 on the narrow window where Anthropic can be the only public frontier AI stock, the margin test NVIDIA faces next Wednesday, and the Marvell warrant deal the market read backwards. The guys open on the data center politics souring the AI narrative into the midterms, then get into the week's headline: Anthropic closed a 39 point pervasion gap on OpenAI in 12 months per the ETR data and crossed over, while the early Q3 read shows OpenAI re-accelerating and Codex pervasion doubling in a quarter. Shay's read is a scarcity window: OpenAI can't list until 2027, so Anthropic gets nearly a year as the only direct public market expression of frontier AI. The catch is capital absorption. A raise that could approach $100 billion has to be funded from somewhere, and the obvious source is the AI proxies. That feeds the neo cloud conversation: Ken Griffin dumped most of the Situational Awareness book, CoreWeave borrows near 10% against a 15% return hurdle, and higher for longer rates squeeze every levered builder. On NVIDIA, the market is pricing the stock under a market multiple into Wednesday's report, and the counter is Vera Rubin holding 75% gross margins after Blackwell, SpaceX growing from roughly 4% of revenue toward 10% by the end of next year, and token margins climbing from 58% on Blackwell to an expected 90% on Feynman while paid token demand runs up 7x this year. Marvell gets the correction segment: the Google deal is about 7% dilution over 6.5 years against $120 billion of spend, TPU ecosystem attach rather than the socket, and roughly ten years of MRVL's entire run rate from one customer. The Q&A block covers OpenAI's consumer monetization problem, Coherent and the CPO revenue that only starts in the December quarter, Cipher at $15 after three round trips to $30, the poll showing 70% of Americans against data centers, and what Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole means two weeks before the September FOMC. The show is live every Friday. If you're tracking AI infrastructure, frontier AI, or the NVIDIA print, bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air. If this one sharpened your read on the Anthropic IPO, a like genuinely helps the show reach more investors. Subscribe and hit the bell so you catch the next live, and tell us in the comments whether you're buying the IPO on day one. Chapters: 00:00 Episode 53: the eye of the storm week 02:21 Data center politics hit the AI narrative 04:08 Golf courses use 3x the water of data centers 04:47 The spokesperson problem: Dario and Sam 06:59 Anthropic's October IPO: the scarcity window 10:10 The ETR data: Anthropic crossed OpenAI 11:35 Compute is the moat and Codex re-accelerates 13:20 Everybody buys the IPO anyway 14:17 A $100B raise has to come from somewhere 16:20 Why the neo clouds sold off 17:42 The cost of capital math on CoreWeave 20:20 Crypto rips 20% and the rotation trade 24:31 NVIDIA preview: the Super Bowl print 26:40 NVIDIA's earnings aren't for NVIDIA anymore 28:39 Daniel's checklist: margins, Rubin, customers 31:25 Jensen's answer to circular financing 34:59 The misleading token chart, corrected 37:36 Marvell and Google: the real warrant math 40:44 Q&A: OpenAI and consumer monetization 43:35 Q&A: Coherent and the CPO ramp 47:55 Q&A: Cipher and the neo cloud ladder 49:25 Q&A: the 70% anti data center poll 53:23 Jackson Hole: Warsh's debut 55:52 Cancer vaccines and AI's public case 59:31 Wrap: next week is a doozy #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #Nvidia #Stocks 1:0:12 Anthropic IPOs in October. The only frontier AI stock for a year. | Ep. 53

Anthropic IPOs in October. The only frontier AI stock for a year. | Ep. 53

Futurum Equities August 21, 2026 11:07 pm

A prominent memory bull flipped short term bearish over the weekend, and Sandisk answered with an investor day that guides to 80% gross margins out to 2030. Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor spend episode 52 on the memory wall, the week the GPU depreciation bear case broke, and Futurum's new $12.7 trillion AI capex number. The guys open on the memory debate: why every semiconductor and systems company is trying to engineer around the memory wall with stacking, optics, and software, and why Daniel still calls memory a 5 to 10 year constraint. Sandisk's investor day gets the full treatment: mid to high teens growth guided through fiscal 2030, 80% non GAAP gross margins, free cash flow at 50% of revenue, KV cache reaching 35% of AI data center NAND workloads by 2030, and the first HBF die coming in 2027. Shay explains his Micron 2027 call position and why memory stays rationed while GPU capacity commands premiums. Then the neo clouds: CoreWeave signed five year A100 contracts on silicon that is already six years old, grew its order book twice as fast as revenue, and passed $400 million in annualized non GPU business. Nebius ran the first Blackwell capacity auction and cleared 15% above its own best pricing, with management saying all of 2027 could book at those levels. Plus Applied Materials' largest sequential growth quarter in its 59 year history, Lenovo's 98% infrastructure growth, Shay's new Vertiv and ON Semiconductor positions for AI power, and the note that chips alone reach roughly $5 trillion of spend by the end of the decade. The Q&A block keeps growing and this week it earned the time: the humanoid robotics SPAC that fails the sniff test, the best AI energy stock between GE Vernova, Vertiv, and Bloom, Aehr Test Systems after a 15x run, AppLovin's make or break Q3, Cipher's messy quarter and the CEO stock sale, Credo against Astera Labs, and how Michael Burry and Jim Cramer keep getting the AI trade wrong. The show is live every Friday. If you're tracking AI infrastructure, memory, or the neo clouds, bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air. If this one sharpened your read on the memory trade, a like genuinely helps the show reach more investors. Subscribe and hit the bell so you catch the next live, and tell us in the comments which constraint you think the dollars rotate to next. Chapters: 00:00 Episode 52 and the Six Five Summit slate 02:38 A memory bull flips bearish 04:05 The memory wall: a 5 to 10 year constraint 07:15 KV cache and memory beyond HBM 09:23 Sandisk investor day: the 2030 targets 11:14 Redesigning the memory hierarchy for inference 13:45 A100s contracted through 2030 15:25 CoreWeave: layers of revenue, real risks 18:48 Power is the gate: Vertiv and ON adds 21:01 Futurum's $12.7 trillion capex number 22:27 Nebius and the Blackwell auction 25:46 Selling puts on space names 28:49 ASTS and Rocket Lab: the execution risk era 31:34 Applied Materials, Cisco, and Lenovo prints 33:56 Elevated expectations, tepid reactions 36:06 Q&A: the humanoid robotics SPAC 38:37 Best AI energy stock: GEV, Vertiv, Bloom 40:42 Aehr Test Systems after a 15x run 42:06 AppLovin's make or break Q3 45:39 Cipher's miss and the CEO sale 48:29 Credo vs Astera Labs 51:22 Burry, Cramer, and the 5% that is overbuilt 55:18 SaaSpocalypse winners 57:43 The eye of the storm before NVIDIA #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #Semis #Earnings 58:20 Memory is a 5 to 10 year constraint. The 2030 guides just proved it. | Ep. 52

Memory is a 5 to 10 year constraint. The 2030 guides just proved it. | Ep. 52

Futurum Equities August 14, 2026 11:09 pm

SpaceX just delivered its first earnings report as a public company, and the number nobody modeled stole the whole show. Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor spend episode 51 on the print, the lockup everyone was selling ahead of, and why a weak jobs report has the entire AI trade breathing again. The guys go deep on SpaceX: 92% growth in an AI cloud business that was never supposed to exist at this scale, a revenue path from $44 billion this year toward $260 billion by 2029, and the math behind Shay buying the lockup fear at $109 to $110 before the print. Elon's on-record line that SpaceX runs only on Nvidia gets its own moment. From there it's Palantir's rerating: 93% growth, commercial up 150%, net dollar retention at 157%, roughly $6 billion of US commercial contract value closed, and 73 deals worth over $10 million each. Daniel calls the end of the SaaS apocalypse and explains why compute is the moat while Anthropic's street ARR pushes $85 billion. AMD gets the honest treatment: the MI350 and EPYC beat, why Lisa Su's conservative guide is the long game, and the Helios rack scale platform with its claimed 30% more tokens per dollar. Plus the no rate hike case under Kevin Warsh after a weak jobs Friday, Shay's new Vertiv position at $220 for AI power exposure, Micron over SK Hynix on HBM rate of change, and the reveal that Shay sold every share of his Tesla on a SpaceX merger theory. The back half is all viewer Q&A: the Palantir and Mercury digital twin partnership, Daniel's put selling playbook that pays him 5 to 10% of his portfolio a year in cash flow, the Oscar Health case study, T1 Energy and EOS Energy as the speculative power trades, and who actually wins when models get cheap. The show is live every Friday. If you're tracking AI infrastructure or trading this earnings season, bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air. If this one helped you make sense of the tape, a like genuinely helps the show reach more investors. Subscribe and hit the bell so you catch the next live, and come tell Shay whether the Tesla exit was genius or tin hat in the comments. Chapters: 00:00 Episode 51: back from the Schwab event 04:19 Jobs Friday: the no rate hike case 09:40 Why weak data is bullish: the 10 year toward 4% 10:57 Buying the July panic and the gaslighting 15:02 Vertiv and the AI power gap 17:22 SpaceX's first earnings as a public company 20:04 The $44B to $260B ramp and the lockup buy 25:56 Sizing SpaceX and the space portfolio 28:12 AMD: Lisa Su's conservative guide and Helios 34:56 Palantir's rerating: 157% retention 38:48 The SaaSpocalypse is over 41:54 Models as commodities and the scarcity premium 44:26 Q&A: Palantir and Mercury's digital twins 46:28 Daniel's put selling playbook 51:37 T1 Energy, EOS, and Shay selling all his Tesla 54:19 Memory: Micron over SK Hynix 57:58 Who wins when models get cheap #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #SpaceX #Earnings 1:1:33 SpaceX guided to $260B by 2029. Shay bought the lockup fear. | Ep. 51

SpaceX guided to $260B by 2029. Shay bought the lockup fear. | Ep. 51

Futurum Equities August 7, 2026 11:26 am

Episode 50 lands in a strange tape. Google grew its cloud business 82% and the stock got sold anyway, and Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor spend the show on what that selling actually means for everyone holding the AI trade. The guys go deep on Alphabet's print: a $25 billion cloud quarter growing 82% with 36% operating margins, a $15 billion capex raise, and the earnings math behind Shay's call that Google is "a great business, bad investment" until EPS clears $20 again in 2029. Nvidia at 18x earnings gets the other side of that trade. From there it's the $11.7 trillion cumulative AI capex bull case through 2030, TSMC raising capex $8 billion in a quarter while flagging a bigger 2027, Intel's blowout on server CPU pricing and Shay's rule that INTC has to prove an external foundry customer to earn its price above $100, Tesla converting record deliveries into a 1% operating margin, Micron and the HBM demand curve the market keeps mispricing, and IREN's $2.8 billion AI cloud contract with roughly half the GPU capex prepaid by customers. Plus SpaceX lockup math and entry levels, Meta at 18x with Shay's $1,200 thesis, and Jensen Huang joining X mid show. The back half is all viewer Q&A: ServiceNow as the benchmark for AI software, Shay's tier one and tier two software framework, whether Meta is the best Mag 7 buy right now, IREN position sizing, and the drone bucket ahead of the Anduril IPO. The show is live every Friday. If you're tracking AI infrastructure or trading this earnings season, bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air. If this one helped you make sense of the tape, a like genuinely helps the show reach more investors. Subscribe and hit the bell so you catch the next live, and come argue with Shay about NVDA at $100 in the comments. Chapters: 00:00 Episode 50: Jensen joins X and the inverse Cramer tape 01:31 Strong prints keep getting sold 03:15 AI turns political and the Apple tell 07:47 The $11.7T capex bull case 09:42 Bottleneck bros and the rate of change problem 12:56 Semis supply constrained for 4 to 5 years 16:10 Google vs Nvidia: the two year problem 18:56 Daniel's defense: capex is existential 21:37 Memory: the market is pricing the peak wrong 23:20 TSMC raises capex, the grown up signal 26:50 Intel's $100 foundry gate 34:07 Tesla: record deliveries, 1% margin 37:47 SpaceX: merger math, lockups, entry levels 43:31 Q&A: ServiceNow and the software tiers 48:57 Meta at 18x and the $1,200 case 52:46 IREN's $2.8B contract 55:45 Drones, Anduril, ASTS 59:06 The put selling playbook and NVDA $100 on record #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #Semis #Earnings 1:2:40 Google grew cloud 82% and still got sold. Where the money went. | Ep 50

Google grew cloud 82% and still got sold. Where the money went. | Ep 50

Futurum Equities July 24, 2026 11:19 am

MU at 6x earnings, NVDA at 18x, and SK Hynix listing 3x oversubscribed on NASDAQ. The memory selloff heading into the listing looked like a fundamentals problem. It wasn't. Daniel Newman sat down with the SK Group chairman on listing day. Shay Boloor walked through exactly why Micron is his cleanest memory entry right now, why NVIDIA has become the capital-safety trade in a volatile market, and where the Mag 7 relative value actually sits heading into the second half. Tickers covered: MU, NVDA, SKHYF, META, MSFT, PLTR, SNOW, DDOG, NOW, CRWD, PANW, DELL, OKLO, BE, GEV, ASTS, RKLB, HIMS, OSCR, SHOP, ADBE, CRM, SAP, AMD. Key data points from this episode: Futurum Equities $155 price target on MU. Futurum 2027 AI-only CapEx forecast of $1.44T. BofA projecting NVIDIA at 65-70% share of AI CapEx. Software names up roughly 50% off April 2025 lows. SK Hynix IPO 3-4x oversubscribed with 30-50% listing-day run risk flagged. 00:00 Intro and SK Hynix US listing context 00:43 SK Hynix NASDAQ debut and Daniel's chairman sit-down 02:14 MU price target, memory rankings, and tariff advantage 07:48 Why geopolitics won't stop AI CapEx 08:14 NVDA as the return-to-safety trade at 18x earnings 10:06 BofA NVDA revenue projection and AMD's role 11:48 Futurum 2027 AI infrastructure CapEx forecast 12:33 NVDA CPU business and Jensen's neo-cloud strategy 14:35 Bottleneck bros valuation gap: NVDA at 18x, MU at 6-8x 15:50 NVIDIA as the T-bill 19:24 META as second-best Mag 7 opportunity 20:03 MSFT at roughly 20% undervalued with $100/share upside 30:08 RKLB, HIMS, and OSCR portfolio moves 32:52 Software up 50% from April lows, rotation dynamics 34:17 Top four AI software winners: PLTR, SNOW, DDOG, SHOP 35:24 ETR survey data flagging enterprise softness risk 37:38 CRWD and PANW both post best quarters in company history 38:07 Daniel on SaaSPocalypse and the era of abundance 39:35 ADBE, CRM as system-of-record value plays 41:00 DELL up 4x YTD but 17% gross margins limit the case 42:44 OKLO down from $200 to $46, Stage 4 breakdown flagged 44:00 BE and GEV as behind-the-meter power plays 46:47 SAP vs PLTR as business AI platforms 49:12 ASTS as the pure space connectivity play 54:20 Samsung profitability data point 54:55 SK Hynix listing bag-holder risk for chasers 56:11 MU near 50-day SMA as re-entry setup #FuturumEquities #DanielNewman #ShayBoloor #AI #Investing #Markets 58:09 SK Hynix listed 3x oversubscribed. Why Micron is the cleaner entry from here. | Ep. 49

SK Hynix listed 3x oversubscribed. Why Micron is the cleaner entry from here. | Ep. 49

Futurum Equities July 8, 2026 11:24 am

PLTR, MU, META compute leasing, and the software bounce: Shay added to Palantir in the $115 range as Alex Carp's CNBC interview reframed the proprietary data moat, and every Future 15 software pick turned green in the same week. This episode covers why the application and data layer sits above frontier model companies as the durable AI winner, what META leasing 500 megawatts of excess GPU capacity actually means for neo clouds like NBIS and CRWV, and why the hosts think that sell-off was overdone. Futurum's price target on MU sits at $155 with street highs above $200. MSFT announced a $2.5B forward-deployed AI joint venture. AWS raised GPU rental prices 20%. OpenAI giving 5% equity to the US government gets called out as pure IPO valuation mechanics, not patriotism. The memory trade, physical AI sensing plays, and the AI CapEx prisoner's dilemma all get full treatment in the back half. Tickers covered: PLTR, MU, META, MSFT, NVDA, SNOW, NOW, CRM, ADBE, ORCL, NBIS, CIFR, WULF, CRWV, ASTS, AXON, AMBA, AVAV, KTOS, ACHR, JOBY 00:00 Intro 01:14 MU breaks below $100 and the memory trade thesis 05:16 Alex Carp CNBC interview and the PLTR data layer argument 08:34 OpenAI and Anthropic ARR approaching $100B 13:46 NVDA as model and cloud company via capacity deals 18:29 SNOW post-earnings and Shay's re-entry plan 19:19 MSFT as best Mag 7 opportunity and the $2.5B AI JV 20:44 Every Future 15 software pick green 23:56 META compute leasing and the neo cloud reaction 29:12 Why the neo cloud sell-off is overdone 33:45 AWS GPU rental prices up 20% and multi-year capacity locks 35:35 META $145B CapEx and 500MW compute leasing EPS math 37:25 OpenAI giving 5% equity to the US government 41:47 Futurum $155 price target on MU and memory supply through the decade 44:32 Physical AI sensing layer: AMBA and drone plays 45:12 AVAV and KTOS as drone pure-play bottom-fish trades 46:03 ACHR and JOBY eVTOL skepticism through 2029 48:32 ASTS as the last pure satellite connectivity play 49:44 AXON catches a bid on recycled news 52:00 AI CapEx prisoner's dilemma 56:15 Apple, memory, and iPhone 18 bill of materials Disclaimer: This episode is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions. 57:14 META flipped $145B of CapEx into a new business overnight. | Ep 48

META flipped $145B of CapEx into a new business overnight. | Ep 48

Futurum Equities July 2, 2026 9:54 am

Micron just posted 85% gross margins and NVIDIA is trading at 18x forward earnings while Intel sits at 60x. We break down why that dislocation matters and what it means for the broader AI infrastructure trade. MU's blowout quarter is the headline, but the structural story is the strategic customer agreements covering roughly 20% of DRAM and 33% of HBM supply with 60% of those contracts carrying no price ceiling. Apple's 15% product price increases confirmed the memory cost pass-through is real, and new supply capacity does not arrive in any meaningful way before 2030. We also get into NVDA at $185 to $190, PLTR with a PEG near 1.0, ORCL's $640B backlog against low-teens infrastructure margins, Cerebras' IPO sequential revenue decline, QCOM's data center push, DOCN pulling from $185 to $140, and a rapid-fire Q&A on CRWV, NBTX, CIFR, WULF, AVGO, AMD, and IRON. Chapters: 00:00 Intro and Qualcomm Investor Day recap 01:05 Micron as the quarter's marquee event 05:40 Apple's 15% price increases and the consumer paying for AI 09:00 How Micron's beats compare to early NVIDIA quarters 11:40 Strategic customer agreements and the no-price-ceiling contracts 16:55 Futurum infrastructure price target and MU EPS path to 2028 18:00 Memory margins before and after AI 19:57 Cerebras IPO breakdown and sequential revenue decline 22:00 Core Weave as a levered NVIDIA-backed infrastructure play 28:50 NVDA vs. Cerebras multiple comparison 29:50 What NVDA's $190 price implies about peak earnings 31:58 How the hosts think about long-term portfolio conviction 33:24 SoFi update 34:42 Buying quality names at a discount 35:40 Viking Therapeutics covered call strategy 38:35 Palantir PEG of 1.0 and the add thesis 41:15 Burry shorts PLTR. The hosts disagree. 43:08 Oracle's $640B backlog and the free cash flow problem 49:13 Astara Labs and Credo as data movement plays 51:09 DigitalOcean from $185 to $140 53:06 Iron AI capital allocation concerns 56:43 Cipher Mining, TeraWolf, and Nebius compared 57:52 AMD at 40x vs. NVDA at 18x 01:00:09 Intel at 60x and the full valuation dislocation picture Nothing in this video is financial advice. All content is for informational and educational purposes only. Disclaimer: This episode is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions. 1:1:45 MU ripped 325% YTD and the multiple is still catching up. Here's why. | Ep 47

MU ripped 325% YTD and the multiple is still catching up. Here's why. | Ep 47

Futurum Equities June 26, 2026 11:18 am

Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor are live on The Futurum Equities Podcast, breaking down how and why the Fed just handed the market a regime change disguised as a hold. If you're running any AI or tech exposure right now you need to understand what actually happened. The Fed kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, but that's the least interesting part of the decision. The dot plot median shifted to 3.8% year-end, nine of eighteen officials are now projecting a 2026 hike, and the cutting-bias language got stripped from the statement entirely. The 2-year Treasury confirmed it immediately, jumping 14 basis points to 4.153%. That's the bond market telling you this is structural. For NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and PLTR, which are all priced on multi-year earnings streams, a higher discount rate compresses multiples even when the fundamentals don't change. Daniel and Shay will pressure-test each name against that reality. The hyperscaler capex commitments are also load-bearing: META guided $125 to $145 billion, MSFT is at $120 billion-plus, AMZN is at $200 billion, and GOOGL is at $175 to $185 billion. That contracted demand flows through to NVDA's data-center segment regardless of where the 2-year goes. 59:24 Fed broke the rate narrative. NVDA and AI capex face a new math | Ep 46

Fed broke the rate narrative. NVDA and AI capex face a new math | Ep 46

Futurum Equities June 18, 2026 11:12 pm

SpaceX debuted at a $2T valuation, 4x oversubscribed, and the largest IPO in history. While the market chased the narrative, NVDA fell 15% from its May highs and ARM ran. Shay closed the ARM position and rotated into NVDA at roughly $200, targeting $300 on a 24-25x earnings multiple. That's the trade the episode is really about. We break down the SpaceX IPO valuation case, why Shay sees the entry as questionable despite loving the business, and what the proxy-chasing dynamic says about where the real AI infrastructure opportunity sits right now. Oracle's OCI transition gets a full breakdown too: a $638B backlog that is larger than Amazon, Microsoft, and Google combined, but mid-teens margins against hyperscaler margins of 30-50% that explain exactly why the market is skeptical on conversion. We close with rapid-fire coverage across drone defense, AI networking names including AVGO, MRVL, ANET, COHR, and CREDO, and the power infrastructure trade with GEV, VRT, Bloom Energy, and Shay's new position in FGNT near $50. Tickers covered: NVDA, ARM, ORCL, RKLB, ASTS, PLTR, SNOW, MDB, GOOGL, AVGO, MRVL, ANET, COHR, LUMN, CREDO, CSCO, HPE, VRT, GEV, BE, FGNT, MRCY, AVAV, KTOS, TSLA 00:00 Intro 00:27 SpaceX IPO opens: $2T valuation, 4x oversubscribed 03:10 Tesla vs SpaceX: narrative structure and valuation parallels 06:52 Google's SpaceX stake and the $35B Anthropic TPU deal 09:11 Shay on the IPO entry point and proxy halo effect 09:51 RKLB and ASTS: owning the space proxies from $3 and $2 15:20 NVDA valuation disconnect: the category leader nobody is bidding 15:40 Why Shay closed ARM and bought NVDA at $200 19:58 Oracle OCI: $638B backlog, mid-teens margins, conversion skepticism 28:45 PLTR and SNOW: AI software names that are actually executing 36:09 Futurum bull case: $5.7T AI CapEx in 2035 alone 37:20 Jensen's numbers: $80-100B per gigawatt, $10-30B token revenue per gigawatt per year 40:44 Google's $35B TPU backstop for Anthropic pre-IPO 43:30 Compute as independence: why everyone is racing to be unconstrained 47:53 AVGO, MRVL, ANET, COHR, CREDO: the networking layer breakdown 51:30 HPE and CSCO hitting all-time highs on enterprise and sovereign AI demand 53:35 Drone defense: AVAV, KTOS, MRCY as the picks-and-shovels layer 54:45 Power trade: VRT, GEV, BE, and FGNT as Shay's new add near $50 59:00 Closing: power constrained for years, space is an add-on not a replacement Subscribe and follow Futurum Equities for live market analysis on the names and narratives moving capital. Disclaimer: This episode is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions. 1:0:15 Oracle's $638B backlog and SpaceX's index clock. What breaks next.

Oracle's $638B backlog and SpaceX's index clock. What breaks next.

Futurum Equities June 12, 2026 11:36 am

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